Experimental Probability

What is Experimental Probability?

This activity allows the user to conduct probability experiments with traditional probability devices such as a spinner and dice. Studying random events with such devices and computer simulations allows you to gain familiarity with the connection between experimental and theoretical probability.

The study of probability allows mathematicians and scientists to make predictions when the outcomes of events are not certain. Probability is essential to the study and prediction of weather patterns, developing medicines, hereditary traits, and most experiments in science.

Related Resources

• Activity Adjustable Spinner
• Activity Coin Toss
• Activity Crazy Choices Game
• Activity Racing Game with One Die
• Activity Racing Game with Two Dice
• Discussion about Equally Likely (Fair) Choice
• Discussion about Polyhedra
• Discussion about Random Number Generators
• Discussion about Theoretical Versus Experimental Probability
• Worksheet Experimental Probability Exploration Questions
• Worksheet Experimental Probability Exploration Questions (doc)

How Do I Use This Activity?

This activity allows the user to experiment with probability by spinning a spinner or rolling dice.

Controls and Output

Begin by choosing to use a preset spinner, make your own spinner, or use dice.

Preset Spinners

• Click on the New Spinner button to choose the type of preset spinner you would like to use.
• Set the number of spins to either 1, 5, or 10.
• Click the Spin button to spin the spinner. Your data will be collected in the window to the right of the spinner.
• Press the Clear Tally button to erase your data and begin again.

Make Your Own Spinner

• The maximum number of slices is 12 similar to a clock.
• The spinner starts out with 4 slices, one of each color.
• The black handles located at 12, 6 and 9 o'clock can be used to increase or decrease the size of a slice by clicking and dragging with the mouse.
• The black handles cannot be used to completely remove a slice, only shrink it to its smallest size of 1/12 of the whole pie.
• The white handle cannot be moved. It represents the first piece or starting point of the pie.
• The + and - buttons on the lower right-hand side can be used to add or remove a slice of a particular color.
• New slices are added at the 4 o'clock position, one sector clockwise from the white handle.
• The size of a new slice will always be 1/12 of the whole pie.
• A black handle will appear to represent the new slice. This handle can be used to adjust it's size.
• When pressing the - button to remove a slice, the first slice of the selected color clockwise from 3 o'clock is removed.
• Removing a slice will cause the adjacent clockwise slice to enlarge, taking up the empty space.
• Set the number of spins, then click the Spin button.

Dice

• You can click the New Dice button to select from a set of preset dice, or you can click the Make Dice button to create your own six-sided dice.
• When selecting from the preset list or making your own dice your selection will be applied to both dice, meaning both dice will always be identical.
• Set the number of rolls, then click the Roll Dice button.

Description

This activity allows the user to experiment with various random number generator models such as spinners and number cubes and tally results. This activity would work well in groups of 2-3 for about 45 minutes.

Place in Mathematics Curriculum

This activity can be used to:

• give students experience generating sets of data using random number generators.
• manipulate random number generators to see the effects on experimental probabilities.

Be Prepared to

• answer the question "Why does my experimental probability not equal my theoretical probability?"
• discuss the difference between experimental and theoretical probablity
• discuss how to determine the experimental probability

Related Resources

• Activity Adjustable Spinner
• Activity Coin Toss
• Activity Crazy Choices Game
• Activity Racing Game with One Die
• Activity Racing Game with Two Dice
• Discussion about Equally Likely (Fair) Choice
• Discussion about Polyhedra
• Discussion about Random Number Generators
• Discussion about Theoretical Versus Experimental Probability
• Lesson on Conditional Probability and Probability of Simultaneous Events
• Lesson on Ideas that Lead to Probability
• Worksheet Experimental Probability Exploration Questions
• Worksheet Experimental Probability Exploration Questions (doc)